Why the GOP’s 'Survival Instinct' Can Save Trump

Donald Trump’s campaign sustains strong GOP support as Election Day approaches, rooted in the party’s unifying instincts and aversion to Democratic policies.

Posted 3 weeks ago

Trump’s Enduring GOP Support

As Election Day approaches, former President Donald Trump has continued to weather controversies that would typically be career-ending for many politicians. From accusations of fascism to high-profile GOP criticism, Trump’s campaign has sustained GOP loyalty. This phenomenon reflects the “survival instinct” within the Republican Party, where unity and loyalty often outweigh individual misgivings about the party’s front-runner.

Controversies Surrounding Trump’s Campaign

Trump’s campaign has not been without criticism from his former aides and high-profile figures within his party. John Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff, recently described him as exhibiting traits of fascism, an accusation that would normally jeopardize a candidate’s standing. These criticisms, paired with Trump’s apparent admiration for figures like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, might raise red flags for traditional GOP voters.

Despite these controversies, polling data suggests Trump’s popularity remains relatively stable. Polling averages from major outlets indicate Trump’s favorability among Republican voters has fluctuated little, underscoring the resilience of his base. For a candidate, enduring support within the party is critical, especially with a tight national race and several swing states likely to determine the outcome.

The Cheney and “Never Trump” Opposition

Former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, Liz Cheney, have emerged as notable Trump critics, openly endorsing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. This endorsement follows years of opposition from a faction within the GOP known as “Never Trumpers,” including prominent conservatives such as William Kristol and George Will.

The group has remained vocal about Trump’s authoritarian tendencies, with publications like The Bulwark publishing pieces questioning his commitment to democratic principles. Such divisions within the GOP highlight an ideological split between traditional conservatives and Trump-aligned Republicans. Yet, as seen in 2016 and 2020, these defections have not significantly dented Trump’s influence within the party.

"Never Trump" Influence on GOP Voters: While the Cheney family’s and Never Trumpers’ endorsements are notable, the percentage of GOP voters swayed by these endorsements remains relatively low. Data from recent elections suggests that endorsements from traditional conservative figures have limited impact on Trump’s core base, which prioritizes loyalty over ideological alignment.

Mainstream GOP Support and Sununu’s Stance

Despite the controversies, many mainstream Republicans remain committed to supporting Trump. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu recently brushed off accusations about Trump’s remarks, calling them “baked into the vote.” Sununu, who has previously described Trump as “crazy,” affirmed he would vote for Trump due to his aversion to Democratic policies.

Sununu’s position reflects a broader trend among Republicans, where the “clothespin vote” emerges—a term used when voters support a candidate out of party loyalty, despite personal reservations. This approach has often characterized Republican voting behavior in presidential elections, especially as Democratic policies continue to contrast sharply with the GOP platform.

The Republican "Survival Instinct"

The GOP’s tendency to rally behind its chosen candidate can be traced back through decades of party dynamics. For many in the party, loyalty to the GOP is not only a matter of ideology but also of survival in a two-party system where the stakes are high.

The Role of Republican Identity: Republican voters have historically felt like the “minority” party, tracing back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal era. Despite GOP victories in the post-World War II period, the party’s identity has often been tied to a sense of underdog survival against a predominantly Democratic political landscape. This has cultivated an instinct among Republicans to unite behind their candidate, regardless of personal reservations, to avoid Democratic dominance.

Polling data also reveals that Republicans are generally more likely than Democrats to vote along party lines. Studies from Pew Research Center have shown that around 80% of Republicans vote consistently for GOP candidates, compared to a slightly lower percentage among Democrats. This loyalty is particularly pronounced in presidential races, where the fear of losing ground to the Democrats serves as a unifying force.

Historical Parallels and Loyalty to Party

Trump’s continued GOP support can be seen as an extension of historical trends. The GOP’s “survival instinct” has emerged during other moments of political crisis, including the impeachment of Bill Clinton in the 1990s, which saw Democrats rally around their candidate despite significant controversy. Similarly, Trump’s reliance on media presence and public support has allowed him to maintain a stronghold within the GOP, even when facing internal dissent.

Polling during Clinton’s impeachment showed that his approval ratings remained above 60%, despite public scrutiny. Trump has leveraged a similar strategy, relying on loyalty from his base and the GOP’s instinct to consolidate support against a Democratic opponent. This trend has been reinforced by social media, which enables Trump to communicate directly with his audience, bypassing traditional media outlets that may portray him unfavorably.

Final Thoughts: GOP Unity Amidst Division

As the 2024 election nears, Trump’s campaign serves as a case study in party loyalty and survival instincts within the GOP. Despite significant opposition from notable Republicans and continuous controversies, Trump’s grip on the Republican base remains largely intact. For many Republicans, the stakes of a potential Democratic presidency outweigh concerns over Trump’s behavior and rhetoric.

With the race too close to call, GOP unity may play a critical role in determining the election’s outcome, reaffirming the party’s historical tendency to “fall in line” when faced with a high-stakes choice. Whether or not Trump ultimately prevails, his continued support highlights the Republican Party’s adaptability and resilience in an era of deep political polarization.