Midwest Poll Reveals Surprising Shift: Harris Surges Past Trump in Iowa as Key Voting Blocs Shift

With only days left before the final votes are cast in the 2024 presidential election, a respected poll shows a remarkable shift in a Midwest state that may alter the election’s trajectory. The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., reveals Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely Iowa voters—a surprising reversal from earlier results that favored Trump.

In September, this same poll placed Trump ahead of Harris by four points. In June, he had an 18-point lead over Joe Biden, then a contender in the race. J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., remarked, "It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," underscoring Harris’s sudden leap into the lead.

Several factors appear to be driving Harris’s gains, including a shift among older voters, especially women, and a notable swing among independent voters. These groups, traditionally less predictable in voting patterns, have seemingly aligned with Harris in recent weeks.

While Iowa was not initially expected to be a pivotal battleground in the 2024 election, its political landscape has shifted due to new state policies and evolving voter concerns. In recent years, Iowa leaned more Republican, particularly after supporting Barack Obama in 2008. However, the state recently enacted a law restricting abortion access to around six weeks, with limited exceptions. Harris has made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign, which may have contributed to her appeal among voters concerned with preserving these rights.

The poll results have also influenced prediction markets, where recent data indicates a tilt toward Harris, with Trump’s previous strong lead diminishing. Political analysts suggest that the Iowa poll may signal similar shifts in other critical Midwestern states—regions crucial for securing the presidency. Historically, Selzer’s polls have proven highly reliable, particularly in Iowa and across the Midwest. In 2020, Selzer’s final Iowa poll correctly forecasted Trump’s significant lead in the state, contradicting other polls that projected a closer race.

The implications of Iowa’s shifting support extend beyond the state. The tight 2020 race in key Midwestern states—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—ended with narrow wins for Biden, forming the critical “blue wall.” This year, these states are once again hotly contested, with Trump leading in some polls. However, if Harris’s support continues to strengthen in Iowa, it could reflect broader Midwestern support that would significantly impact her path to the White House.

The Iowa poll results have not come without skepticism. Nate Silver, a prominent polling analyst, suggested that while Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters, there’s still a possibility for variance. Silver, however, acknowledged Selzer’s track record, calling her “near-oracular” in her polling predictions.

The unexpected shift in Iowa’s voting dynamics underscores the volatile nature of the 2024 race. As Midwestern voters’ preferences evolve, the final outcome remains unpredictable, with Iowa’s polling results hinting at potential trends across the region. This close contest keeps the race intensely competitive, and with several days remaining, any further shifts could influence not only the Midwest but the entire election outcome.